The 2026 Oscars are right around the corner, and safe betting money is following the bookies’ favourites to win best original and best adapted screenplay.
Both categories have an overwhelming frontrunner in Sinners and One Battle After Another, and each film has been boosted by wins at the WGA Awards on Sunday.
Film News Blitz’s Dan Lawrence takes a look at the latest betting odds.
‘Sinners’ is in pole position to win best original screenplay at the 2026 Oscars
Sinners has a record-breaking 16 Oscar nominations, including one in the best original screenplay category for Ryan Coogler.
Coogler’s penmanship has already seen him win the equivalent awards at the BAFTAs, the Critics Choice Awards, the Golden Globes and the WGA Awards.
It’s no surprise then that Sinners is the bookies’ favourite to win best original screenplay at the 2026 Oscars, at 1/16 with multiple vendors.
Marty Supreme (written by Ronald Bronstein and Josh Safdie) is next up at 16/1, followed by Sentimental Value (written by Eskil Vogt and Joachim Trier) at 20/1.
Palme d’Or winner It Was Just an Accident at 33/1, and Blue Moon at 50/1 are the outside bets in this category.
‘One Battle After Another’ tipped for best adapted screenplay at the 2026 Oscars
Paul Thomas Anderson has enjoyed incredible success with his loose adaptation of Thomas Pynchon’s 1990 novel Vineland.
One Battle After Another and Sinners are set for an almighty contest at this year’s Oscars, but screenwriting is one battleground where they’re kept apart.
Fresh from his WGA Awards win, Anderson’s work on the One Battle After Another screenplay has him in pole position to win best adapted screenplay at the 2026 Oscars.
His penmanship is the odds-on favourite at 1/14 with multiple bettors.
Maggie O’Farrell co-wrote the adaptation of her novel Hamnet with director Chloe Zhao, and their tearjerking work is next up at 14/1.
Netflix has a foot in this race with Train Dreams at 25/1 and Frankenstein at 33/1, which has its odds tied with Bugonia.
From the odds at play, it’s pretty clear that betting against Sinners or One Battle After Another at the 2026 Oscars would be a fool’s errand.
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